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Estimate the Number of Smartwatches Sold Annually by Apple in Germany

Guesstimates · advanced

Estimate the annual number of smartwatches sold by Apple in Germany. Discuss your assumptions, how you break down the estimation, and the factors that could influence the result.

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Community approaches

Yuvraj’s approach

Target estimate: No of watches sold by Apple annually within Germany Annual sales= Population x Target segment Key drivers:

  1. population of germany
  2. how many people pwn a smartwatch
  3. Apple market share among those users
  4. how often people buy new ones

Assumptions: population in germany- 84 million adult population: 59 million smartwatch audience: 15% of adults= 9 million users Apple share= 50% which means approx 4.5 million users How often-> every 3 years= 1/3 users buy annually

Caluculation: smartwatch users= 9 million Apple watch users= 4.5 million Annual sales 4.5/3 = 1.5 million units annually

Sanity check: apple global watches sales= 40-45 million Germany is 1% of world population 1.5 million units is 3-4% of global sales

S0, Apple sells 1.5 million smartwatches annually in Germany.